Saturday, March 1, 2014

Pessimism Power

Everywhere you look on market blogs, people are trying to Top Pick, guess the fib retracements *up* off minor corrections before the "next leg down", calling every move up a bounce, finding every crash analog imaginable, and in some cases just drawing mind boggling lines that point straight down with no discernible reason.

It's been going on for years now.  These are all exemplary of what is wrong with the thought patterns of retail traders and the supposed gurus that provide them with the confirmation bias they seek.  Technical Indicators and dubious "theories" like Gann, Elliot Wave, etc are employed in a biased fashion to make people more comfortable about what they have already decided is going to happen.

Good Grief, when you employ these types of thinking to the market, you end up looking like this.

The fact is that everywhere I look, I see exciting new technologies on the horizon, new drugs, new knowledge of bacterium, new materials, new battery technologies, ever increasing data speeds & computing powers for ever decreasing power consumption.  Sure there will be disruptions along the way, but folks; The Sun will rise tomorrow!