Thursday, March 13, 2014

March 13th - SPX

Tonight just focusing on the S&P 500.

    First a little about me.  I don't 'trade' the equity indexes so to speak, but I watch and chart it to try to stay on the right side of the market in my 401k.  So typically and hopefully I don't end up doing too much, too often.  I'm also limited to only "rebalancing" my portfolio as of the market close, so there is no fancy timing intraday, etc.  In anticipation of this inverse head and shoulders pattern I thought may play out, I did a little "timing" and rolled into the Bond fund 3 days ago when we started making lower lows on the daily candle shadows.  Decent couple of days in the bond fund.

Here, I rolled back into the S&P index fund EOD, but I want to warn I may very well be early.  I do that more than I'd like, but luckily Bull Markets make even idiots look good ;).  Looking at the chart, you see that the left shoulder of my as of yet theoretical iHS was 46 points peak to trough, and this rightie is now 41.3 points peak to trough.  It could head down to the orange line even from here and still be OK in my book.  A break of the orange line and I'd be looking for the purple line to hold.  a break of the purple line would be, for me, a Stop Out and I would flop out to the bond fund or even cash in my 401k.

As of now, without breaking below last week's low we'll produce an inside weekly candle, which in a strong trend is a continuation pattern.

Couple comments on stocks we've charted past few days:

BTU - broke decisively below the previous lows, could certainly head down to the 52 week low at 14.35 area, and I'll watch it very carefully there.

ONVO - held above the neckline.

EXAS - broke the mini ascending wedge.  Oh well TA on this stock is for the birds.  Love the management, the product, the clinical trial data, and the possibilities ;)

Have a good night folks.