Saturday, October 11, 2014

10-11-2014 $SPX - Inflection Point

Purple line is broken.  Bear Goggles Time?

Short answer is maybe.  I'm not ready to give up on the bull yet - but is time to be cautious.  The only other time in this bull market since 2011 that we broke the purple line was in November 2012.  You can see from the chart above how much we broke it by, and the analog that there is room to go to 1880 or even a little lower on a percentage basis and still resume uptrend, but we need to bounce hard & soon.  Coinciding with the purple line break of November 2012 the total market cumulative AD trendline was slightly breached, also just as it is now.  I think we are clearly at a point where the market needs to bottom and head up.  If it does not do so & soon, then we are likely in for a deeper correction.  I'm not going to speculate on how deep it could go right now.

To be honest I think that this sell off is over done & still see plenty of fundamental reasons the market should move broadly higher.  That doesn't mean a correction can't happen, but I think this sell off has been based on irrational fears of Ebola and dithering by Draghi.  There's my two cents.